By Alan Chen
~5 minutes
Recently, communities across the globe have seen unusually intense and violent hailstorms. Many have noticed huge ‘monster hail,’ which can be the same size as a small Labubu and cause significant damage to people and their property. This growth in hail size can be traced back to stronger updrafts and warmer temperatures, which I will expand on in this article. Communities will have to learn to deal with these powerful storms as hail sizes continue to rise.
How is Hail Formed?
Hail is made when raindrops are lifted by updrafts, or warm rising air, into the upper atmosphere. There, the temperatures are cooler, and the raindrops freeze into small particles of ice. As the ice particles are carried around by the updrafts, they bump into supercooled water droplets. Supercooled water droplets are raindrops that are still in liquid form despite being at below-freezing temperatures. When these droplets collide with the ice particles, they immediately freeze onto the particles, making them bigger. As this cycle continues, more and more droplets attach to the hailstone, causing it to grow larger and larger. Once the hailstone gets too heavy for the updrafts to support it, the hailstone will fall to the ground.
According to atmospheric scientist Brian Tang, there are two main hypotheses that potentially explain hail’s increasing size:
One explanation involves Earth’s rising temperatures. In recent years, there have been warmer overall air temperatures due to heat being trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. As that air gets warmer, it also becomes more moist, as warmer air can hold more water vapor. Because there’s more moisture, more supercooled water droplets will be found in the upper parts of storms, where temperatures are below freezing. With greater access to these droplets, hailstones can grow even larger.
Another factor articulated by Brian Tang is an increase in unstable air masses coming from western North America. As these air masses move east, they form thunderstorms over flatter areas. These air masses are formed because of many reasons. One of these is the accelerated melting of mountain snowpacks, which is caused by rising temperatures. As snowpacks melt more rapidly, the ground beneath them gets heated. This heating, in turn, also warms the air near the ground while the air higher up remains cool. This contrast in temperature creates even more atmospheric instability, which leads to the development of unstable air masses, and thus, thunderstorms.
But these hail sizes could only be the beginning. According to a study conducted by the Weather, Climate and Society Research Group at Northern Illinois University, “Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail.” The study goes on to report that smaller hailstones (<4 cm in diameter) are expected to become less frequent, while larger stones are expected to increase by 15-75% in size. In other words, it was concluded that hailstorms may become less common overall; however, the small, relatively harmless hail that makes up the bulk of hailstorms today may be replaced by larger, more destructive hail.
We’re already seeing early signs of this shift. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet recorded 1307 instances of 2+ inch hail in 2024, compared to just 714 in the year prior. Likewise, Colorado set its state record for hail size in 2023 with a 5.45 inch hailstone- that’s about two tennis balls (0.00126 football fields) wide!
How does this affect you?
The effect of these intense hailstorms is clear: according to Versik, roof repair value in 2024 reached almost 31 billion dollars, a 30% increase from just two years prior. Wind and hail were the primary drivers, making up almost half of all roof-related insurance claims.
Some helpful ways to prevent property damage include:
- Parking cars in garages or under shelters
- Trimming trees to prevent falling branches
- Clearing gutters to stop them from overflowing
- Replacing windows and roofing
If your area is expected to experience a hailstorm, stay up to date with weather forecasts and pay attention to warning systems. Make sure to have an enclosed room in your house with no windows and stay there until weather services confirm that the storm has passed.
Conclusion
In recent years, we have seen hail grow larger and larger, and this trend shows no signs of stopping. As hailstorms continue to evolve and become more unpredictable, it is extremely important to stay informed as we adapt to the continuing changes in our climate. It is important to realize that the trends we are seeing are indicative of a larger shift in our climate. Outside of hailstorms, numerous other gradual shifts in our weather are taking place. We are seeing extended droughts, rising sea levels, and longer wildfire seasons as well. While it is still debatable whether these shifts are man-made or part of a natural cycle, it is clear that hail is just one symptom of a larger change that will have lasting effects on human life for years to come.
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